Affluent south-east appears least resilient to warming, according to analysis of temperature records and mortality figures
Communities in the south-east of England are especially vulnerable to deaths in heatwaves, new research has revealed. In deprived districts of London such Tower Hamlets, the risk of dying more than doubles on very hot days such as those seen in the heatwave of 2003.
Researchers already know that higher temperatures increase deaths – particularly from heart attacks, strokes and respiratory illnesses – among older people. But this is the first study to see how this varies across the 376 local authorities in England and Wales. The extreme heatwave of 2003 killed tens of thousands of people across Europe, but is expected to occur once a decade as climate change increases.
The vulnerability of the affluent south-east was a surprise to scientists because it was not simply due to the region being warmer on average. "It is something above and beyond just warmer temperatures," said Professor Majid Ezzati, at Imperial College London who led the new research. "We might expect that people in areas that tend to be warmer would be more resilient, because they adapt by installing air conditioning for example. These results show that this isn't the case in England and Wales."
The reason for the higher death rates in the south-east is not yet known, but Prof Ezzati said it may reflect social differences – such as more people living alone or far from family members – or other factors such as more dense housing or different healthcare provision.
The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that across England and Wales as a whole, a summer that is 2C warmer than average would be expected to cause around 1,550 extra deaths. Just over half would be in people aged over 85, and two-thirds would be in women.
The scientists analysed temperature records and mortality figures for 2001-10 to discover which districts in England and Wales experienced the biggest effects from warm temperatures. They found that just 95 out of 376 districts, concentrated in the south-east, accounted for half of all deaths.
"While climate change is a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to its effects are highly local," said Prof Ezzati. "Many things can be done at the local level to reduce the impact of warm spells, like alerting the public and planning for emergency services. Detailed information about which communities are most at risk can help to inform these strategies."
Dr Philip Staddon at the University of Exeter medical school, who was not part of the study team, said: "It is particularly intriguing that the more resilient areas are located in the poorer north and west, whereas the affluent south-east seems least resilient. It's possible other factors are at play here, for example the higher life expectancy in the south-east."
Prof Ezzati said if climate change increased temperatures uniformly across both summer and winter, then the higher summer death rate would be more than offset by a cut in the rate of winter deaths. "But we don't want to be betting on [uniform warming] as a society," he said. "Climate change means more variable winters, not just uniformly warmer."
Another recent study of the effect of climate change on weather-related deaths in the UK found that without adaptation, the number of heat-related deaths would increase by 66% in the 2020s, 257% by the 2050s and 535% by the 2080s. Cold weather-related deaths would increase by 3% in the 2020s, but then decrease by 2% in the 2050s and by 12% in the 2080s, the researchers from Public Health England and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found.
Overall, the number of weather-related deaths would rise, the study concluded, but that was because the number of vulnerable older people in the population would also rise. Reported by guardian.co.uk 3 hours ago.
Communities in the south-east of England are especially vulnerable to deaths in heatwaves, new research has revealed. In deprived districts of London such Tower Hamlets, the risk of dying more than doubles on very hot days such as those seen in the heatwave of 2003.
Researchers already know that higher temperatures increase deaths – particularly from heart attacks, strokes and respiratory illnesses – among older people. But this is the first study to see how this varies across the 376 local authorities in England and Wales. The extreme heatwave of 2003 killed tens of thousands of people across Europe, but is expected to occur once a decade as climate change increases.
The vulnerability of the affluent south-east was a surprise to scientists because it was not simply due to the region being warmer on average. "It is something above and beyond just warmer temperatures," said Professor Majid Ezzati, at Imperial College London who led the new research. "We might expect that people in areas that tend to be warmer would be more resilient, because they adapt by installing air conditioning for example. These results show that this isn't the case in England and Wales."
The reason for the higher death rates in the south-east is not yet known, but Prof Ezzati said it may reflect social differences – such as more people living alone or far from family members – or other factors such as more dense housing or different healthcare provision.
The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that across England and Wales as a whole, a summer that is 2C warmer than average would be expected to cause around 1,550 extra deaths. Just over half would be in people aged over 85, and two-thirds would be in women.
The scientists analysed temperature records and mortality figures for 2001-10 to discover which districts in England and Wales experienced the biggest effects from warm temperatures. They found that just 95 out of 376 districts, concentrated in the south-east, accounted for half of all deaths.
"While climate change is a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to its effects are highly local," said Prof Ezzati. "Many things can be done at the local level to reduce the impact of warm spells, like alerting the public and planning for emergency services. Detailed information about which communities are most at risk can help to inform these strategies."
Dr Philip Staddon at the University of Exeter medical school, who was not part of the study team, said: "It is particularly intriguing that the more resilient areas are located in the poorer north and west, whereas the affluent south-east seems least resilient. It's possible other factors are at play here, for example the higher life expectancy in the south-east."
Prof Ezzati said if climate change increased temperatures uniformly across both summer and winter, then the higher summer death rate would be more than offset by a cut in the rate of winter deaths. "But we don't want to be betting on [uniform warming] as a society," he said. "Climate change means more variable winters, not just uniformly warmer."
Another recent study of the effect of climate change on weather-related deaths in the UK found that without adaptation, the number of heat-related deaths would increase by 66% in the 2020s, 257% by the 2050s and 535% by the 2080s. Cold weather-related deaths would increase by 3% in the 2020s, but then decrease by 2% in the 2050s and by 12% in the 2080s, the researchers from Public Health England and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found.
Overall, the number of weather-related deaths would rise, the study concluded, but that was because the number of vulnerable older people in the population would also rise. Reported by guardian.co.uk 3 hours ago.