Currency problems show the interlinked world economy is a problem for Putin – but Europe needs Russian gas and business
Vladimir Putin's first television performance since pro-Russian forces took over government buildings in Crimea on Thursday coincided with a standing down of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and a hope that a European war had, for a day, been averted. Aware that his press conference would be scrutinised by domestic and international audiences, the Russian leader was by turns emollient, authoritative and fantastical. It is worth examining what he said in some detail.
The source of the Ukraine crisis was, according to Mr Putin, an "unconstitutional coup" that toppled the elected president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. The Russian leader laid the blame for this putsch on western-backed fascists whose moves were orchestrated by the US, the EU or both. Since Mr Yanukovych had asked for Russian help in a letter sent by the former Ukrainian president on Saturday, the door remained open to further adventures inside his western neighbour's borders: Russia would, Mr Putin said, intercede in eastern Ukraine if he felt there was a threat. Mr Yanukovych was the only legitimate leader of the country, so Russia would refuse to recognise the result of the forthcoming election on 25 March.
At times Mr Putin became lost in flights of apparent fancy: the mask-wearing troops who had seized Crimea were not Russians but in fact Crimean self-defence forces who, he suggested, bought their new-look Russian uniforms in local shops. These men had taken control in a bid to prevent attacks by bands of revolutionary fascists – none of whom the world's media has yet seen or heard from.
The interim Ukrainian government will be struggling to interpret these rambling statements of Russian intent. Some of what Mr Putin said is true: the European Union carries a share of responsibility for what occurred – it was the offer of an EU association agreement, which Mr Yanukovych's government rejected, that sparked pro-Brussels demonstrations. It is also true that there were groups of far-right activists among the protesters. But few impartial observers would argue that the events in the Maidan constituted a coup or anything other than a revolution against a corrupt president. And if Mr Yanukovych is the only legitimate leader of Ukraine, why did Mr Putin bury him with the words "I think he has no political future. I told him that"?
What is clear is that Mr Putin is intent on keeping Kiev weak, even at some risk to Russia. His actions have already cost his country dear. It has been isolated internationally, with its traditional ally China expressing scepticism, and its G8 status is threatened. If the Crimean peninsula is indeed annexed in the long term, Moscow will gain an angry new population of reluctant Ukrainians and Muslim Tatars. And as Mr Putin pointed out, the economic consequences are already being felt. This is not the cold war. The world is no longer split into eastern and western blocs divided by a separating iron curtain. Russian power brokers live in Kensington and the Upper West Side, and ski in Courchevel, while shares in Russian businesses are bought and sold in Moscow's exchange on behalf of investors in Tokyo, New York and Hong Kong. On Monday Moscow's stock lost a staggering 11% of its value while the rouble fell to a record low, prompting the Russian central bank to spend at least $7bn supporting it. Capital flight, economic sanctions, asset freezes and travel restrictions could affect Russia's power structure in ways they would not have conceived of in 1968.
But if the interlinkage of world economies is a weakness for Putin, it is also a weakness for Europe. Germany needs Russian gas and, as was eloquently explained by a briefing document photographed in Downing Street stating that Britain should "not support, for now, trade sanctions … or close London's financial centre to Russians", the City wants Russian business. If European governments are serious about helping Ukraine find a way through Russia's interference, they will have to think hard about where their priorities lie. Reported by guardian.co.uk 7 hours ago.
Vladimir Putin's first television performance since pro-Russian forces took over government buildings in Crimea on Thursday coincided with a standing down of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and a hope that a European war had, for a day, been averted. Aware that his press conference would be scrutinised by domestic and international audiences, the Russian leader was by turns emollient, authoritative and fantastical. It is worth examining what he said in some detail.
The source of the Ukraine crisis was, according to Mr Putin, an "unconstitutional coup" that toppled the elected president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych. The Russian leader laid the blame for this putsch on western-backed fascists whose moves were orchestrated by the US, the EU or both. Since Mr Yanukovych had asked for Russian help in a letter sent by the former Ukrainian president on Saturday, the door remained open to further adventures inside his western neighbour's borders: Russia would, Mr Putin said, intercede in eastern Ukraine if he felt there was a threat. Mr Yanukovych was the only legitimate leader of the country, so Russia would refuse to recognise the result of the forthcoming election on 25 March.
At times Mr Putin became lost in flights of apparent fancy: the mask-wearing troops who had seized Crimea were not Russians but in fact Crimean self-defence forces who, he suggested, bought their new-look Russian uniforms in local shops. These men had taken control in a bid to prevent attacks by bands of revolutionary fascists – none of whom the world's media has yet seen or heard from.
The interim Ukrainian government will be struggling to interpret these rambling statements of Russian intent. Some of what Mr Putin said is true: the European Union carries a share of responsibility for what occurred – it was the offer of an EU association agreement, which Mr Yanukovych's government rejected, that sparked pro-Brussels demonstrations. It is also true that there were groups of far-right activists among the protesters. But few impartial observers would argue that the events in the Maidan constituted a coup or anything other than a revolution against a corrupt president. And if Mr Yanukovych is the only legitimate leader of Ukraine, why did Mr Putin bury him with the words "I think he has no political future. I told him that"?
What is clear is that Mr Putin is intent on keeping Kiev weak, even at some risk to Russia. His actions have already cost his country dear. It has been isolated internationally, with its traditional ally China expressing scepticism, and its G8 status is threatened. If the Crimean peninsula is indeed annexed in the long term, Moscow will gain an angry new population of reluctant Ukrainians and Muslim Tatars. And as Mr Putin pointed out, the economic consequences are already being felt. This is not the cold war. The world is no longer split into eastern and western blocs divided by a separating iron curtain. Russian power brokers live in Kensington and the Upper West Side, and ski in Courchevel, while shares in Russian businesses are bought and sold in Moscow's exchange on behalf of investors in Tokyo, New York and Hong Kong. On Monday Moscow's stock lost a staggering 11% of its value while the rouble fell to a record low, prompting the Russian central bank to spend at least $7bn supporting it. Capital flight, economic sanctions, asset freezes and travel restrictions could affect Russia's power structure in ways they would not have conceived of in 1968.
But if the interlinkage of world economies is a weakness for Putin, it is also a weakness for Europe. Germany needs Russian gas and, as was eloquently explained by a briefing document photographed in Downing Street stating that Britain should "not support, for now, trade sanctions … or close London's financial centre to Russians", the City wants Russian business. If European governments are serious about helping Ukraine find a way through Russia's interference, they will have to think hard about where their priorities lie. Reported by guardian.co.uk 7 hours ago.