Reopening the Lisbon treaty to suit Britain would be a phenomenal diplomatic challenge in the time David Cameron has allowed
David Cameron will roll out the most vermilion of red carpets for the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Mrs Merkel, who is not a head of state, will be accorded almost every privilege on her visit to London: she will take tea with the Queen, lunch at No 10 and address both houses of parliament. This is in stark contrast to the reception awarded to the president of France, François Hollande, who was taken to a pub after a summit on a windy Oxfordshire airfield. If she didn't already know it, the German chancellor might suspect she was being buttered up. Why?
As the newly re-elected leader of Germany and the woman who has steered the EU through its worst-ever crisis, Mrs Merkel is Europe's reigning empress and a potentially powerful ally. There is much for the two centre-right leaders to discuss: the crisis in Ukraine, the forthcoming European elections, appointments to the three soon-to-be-vacant presidencies – of Europe's commission, its parliament and its council.
But Mr Cameron's real reasons for paying such heavy court to the German chancellor lie closer to home. Mrs Merkel is crucial to his plan to escape from a European trap of his own devising. It is just over a year since the prime minister gave what may have been the most significant speech so far. At Bloomberg's headquarters in London, Mr Cameron pledged that after the 2015 election he would renegotiate the terms of the UK's relationship with Europe and then – within two years – put the result to the electorate in an "in-out" referendum.
It was a bold gambit designed to silence the gallery of Eurosceptic backbenchers, Ukippers and rightwing media outlets that have dogged him, and for a short while it worked: he was even cheered for it in the Commons. As time goes by, however, it looks increasingly foolhardy. There are manifest reasons for this, among them the fact that, far from being sated, the Brussels-bashing right has come back for more, even as businesspeople have recoiled at the prospect of a British exit from the EU. Then there is the serious question of what exactly Mr Cameron's negotiations can deliver: any major change in Britain's relationship with Europe would require a redrafting of the Lisbon treaty and the consent of the 27 other member states, several of whom – including France – may then have to put the deal to a referendum. Reopening Lisbon to suit Britain would be a phenomenal diplomatic challenge in the time Mr Cameron has allowed, and one that is probably beyond a government whose European partners are increasingly chary of British vetoes, cherrypicking and opt-outs. The more he and George Osborne hector the EU, the weaker their negotiating position becomes.
Hedged about by rabid anti-European sentiment, Mr Cameron must nevertheless deliver the semblance of victory, and this is where Mrs Merkel is key. There is little doubt that the CDU leader would rather Britain stay in the EU than leave it. As one of the big-four European countries, Germany finds the free-marketeering UK a useful counterweight to the "Club Med" economies of France, Spain and Italy. The question, then, is how far Mr Cameron will be able to stretch Britain's north European soulmate.
Mr Cameron makes much of his desire to reform so-called benefits tourism in Europe, a position for which Germany has expressed sympathy. In fact, given that Mr Cameron's law would apply only to new member states and that no new countries are likely to join for a decade, it adds up to little in the short term. There is no doubt a project of European reform to which the Germans would subscribe, though their vision will be one of closer fiscal integration rather than repatriation of powers. And then there is rhetoric.
Mrs Merkel may well pose for many fine photographs and say many fine words. She may stress the centrality of Britain. She may even offer some crumbs of apparent commitment which can be spun as a Cameronian victories over Europe. Those apparent victories should be examined carefully, however. They are likely to ring very hollow. Reported by guardian.co.uk 5 hours ago.
David Cameron will roll out the most vermilion of red carpets for the German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Mrs Merkel, who is not a head of state, will be accorded almost every privilege on her visit to London: she will take tea with the Queen, lunch at No 10 and address both houses of parliament. This is in stark contrast to the reception awarded to the president of France, François Hollande, who was taken to a pub after a summit on a windy Oxfordshire airfield. If she didn't already know it, the German chancellor might suspect she was being buttered up. Why?
As the newly re-elected leader of Germany and the woman who has steered the EU through its worst-ever crisis, Mrs Merkel is Europe's reigning empress and a potentially powerful ally. There is much for the two centre-right leaders to discuss: the crisis in Ukraine, the forthcoming European elections, appointments to the three soon-to-be-vacant presidencies – of Europe's commission, its parliament and its council.
But Mr Cameron's real reasons for paying such heavy court to the German chancellor lie closer to home. Mrs Merkel is crucial to his plan to escape from a European trap of his own devising. It is just over a year since the prime minister gave what may have been the most significant speech so far. At Bloomberg's headquarters in London, Mr Cameron pledged that after the 2015 election he would renegotiate the terms of the UK's relationship with Europe and then – within two years – put the result to the electorate in an "in-out" referendum.
It was a bold gambit designed to silence the gallery of Eurosceptic backbenchers, Ukippers and rightwing media outlets that have dogged him, and for a short while it worked: he was even cheered for it in the Commons. As time goes by, however, it looks increasingly foolhardy. There are manifest reasons for this, among them the fact that, far from being sated, the Brussels-bashing right has come back for more, even as businesspeople have recoiled at the prospect of a British exit from the EU. Then there is the serious question of what exactly Mr Cameron's negotiations can deliver: any major change in Britain's relationship with Europe would require a redrafting of the Lisbon treaty and the consent of the 27 other member states, several of whom – including France – may then have to put the deal to a referendum. Reopening Lisbon to suit Britain would be a phenomenal diplomatic challenge in the time Mr Cameron has allowed, and one that is probably beyond a government whose European partners are increasingly chary of British vetoes, cherrypicking and opt-outs. The more he and George Osborne hector the EU, the weaker their negotiating position becomes.
Hedged about by rabid anti-European sentiment, Mr Cameron must nevertheless deliver the semblance of victory, and this is where Mrs Merkel is key. There is little doubt that the CDU leader would rather Britain stay in the EU than leave it. As one of the big-four European countries, Germany finds the free-marketeering UK a useful counterweight to the "Club Med" economies of France, Spain and Italy. The question, then, is how far Mr Cameron will be able to stretch Britain's north European soulmate.
Mr Cameron makes much of his desire to reform so-called benefits tourism in Europe, a position for which Germany has expressed sympathy. In fact, given that Mr Cameron's law would apply only to new member states and that no new countries are likely to join for a decade, it adds up to little in the short term. There is no doubt a project of European reform to which the Germans would subscribe, though their vision will be one of closer fiscal integration rather than repatriation of powers. And then there is rhetoric.
Mrs Merkel may well pose for many fine photographs and say many fine words. She may stress the centrality of Britain. She may even offer some crumbs of apparent commitment which can be spun as a Cameronian victories over Europe. Those apparent victories should be examined carefully, however. They are likely to ring very hollow. Reported by guardian.co.uk 5 hours ago.