On the evidence to date in the Heineken Cup, a final four of the French sides Toulouse, Toulon and Clermont Auvergne plus Leicester would not be a massive shock
After a promising first weekend it has not been a vintage Heineken Cup season so far. Maybe it is the partial fault of the distracting off-field arguments about the tournament's future. Too many pitches have also been poor. One day someone in authority will make the vital connection between a decent surface – grass or artificial – and entertaining professional rugby and appreciate the two are inextricably linked. Good groundsmen would suddenly become as sought-after as decent tight-heads.
Nor does it help that the final weekend of pool games threatens to contain about as much left-field suspense, relative to previous seasons, as a newsreader's autocue. Unless Saracens lose at home to Connacht and Leinster fail to collect a point at home to Ospreys, we pretty much know the last eight sides already. Come to think of it, we had a pretty good idea before Christmas.
Way back in October there seemed a possibility that Northampton and Montpellier might edge out Leinster and Ulster but it has not happened. The likes of Toulon, Toulouse, Clermont Auvergne, Munster, Leicester and Saracens have merely done what most expected, with the exception of Connacht's wonderful Pool Three win at Toulouse. The Italian teams' record, meanwhile, reads P10 L10, ensuring the two best second-placed qualifiers will, as per usual, almost certainly emerge from their pools.
On the other hand, the blanket survival of the biggest and fittest –has Europe now morphed into three tiers comprising the elite rich, the middling strivers and the low budget rest? – makes the knockout stages intriguing. As things stand it seems Clermont, Toulouse, Toulon and Leicester – not necessarily in that order – are best placed to secure a home draw, a calculation which assumes an unbeaten Ulster team will not quite manage to turn over the Tigers at Welford Road on Saturday.
That would leave the three Irish provinces, Munster, Leinster and Ulster, looking at an away quarter-final, along with Saracens. It could even be that Sarries, having been battered into submission in Toulouse on Sunday, will have to return to the Midi to face the same opponents, their delayed punishment for finishing second in their pool.
If Ulster – the only unbeaten team left in the competition – do finish second in Pool Five, they might also have to return to the East Midlands in the last eight. In that event there would be a distinct chance of Clermont hosting Munster and Toulon entertaining Leinster. That would certainly tell us whether the Irish sides are the equal of their champion predecessors.
On the evidence to date, it must be said, a final four of Toulouse, Toulon, Clermont and Leicester would not be a massive shock. By April, the likes of Manu Tuilagi should be back fit and the luck of Sunday's semi-final draw at Thomond Park might also boost the Tigers' prospects of reaching the final in Cardiff, in defiance of the gulf in salaries which their director of rugby Richard Cockerill is swift to highlight.
Whatever Europe ends up looking like in future, this random semi-final draw always has a faintly unsatisfactory feel. Surely, in the absence of a two-legged semi, the team with the best record – or the most tries – in that season's pool stages should have precedence? If Clermont, the current Top 14 leaders, are allowed to play their quarter-final and semi-final on French soil, however, they must still be considered favourites to lift the title. Toulon may be the defending champions and Toulouse the tournament's grand masters but the big boys from the Auvergne want to give their departing coach Vern Cotter a grand send-off and have the squad to make it happen.
If Sitiveni Sivivatu, in particular, keeps playing as he has been doing, their knock-out opponents will find them hard to stop. As for the Amlin Challenge Cup qualifiers, Northampton and the winners of Scarlets v Harlequins and Cardiff Blues v Exeter Chiefs may well join the five pool winners. Unless, that is, a largely predictable pool story has a couple of late surprises in store.
*Empty nests*
So far, we are told, some 773,302 spectators have watched the five Heineken Cup pool rounds so far. Perhaps just as relevant is the atmosphere they are watching the games in. You wonder, in particular, if Welsh regional rugby would be more attractive to more punters if so many games were not taking place in soulless half-empty football grounds with little in the way of warmth or character. It does not feel like a total coincidence that Europe's most successful sides – Clermont, Toulon, Leicester, Munster, Leinster etc – play their big matches in atmospheric stadia full of supporters swept away on a tide of passionate enthusiasm.
Staging games in front of rows of empty seats on freezing cold Friday nights or wet Sunday lunchtimes tests the faith of even the most committed.
*Prediction of the week ...*
So much for Saracens winning in Toulouse! Undaunted, our hutch pundit has boldly gone for the food bowl marked "Ulster" when invited to predict the outcome of this weekend's Pool Five decider at Welford Road. With his record beginning to look patchier than a 20-year-old pair of jeans, it is time to call his bluff. Leicester to win and top the pool. Reported by guardian.co.uk 12 hours ago.
After a promising first weekend it has not been a vintage Heineken Cup season so far. Maybe it is the partial fault of the distracting off-field arguments about the tournament's future. Too many pitches have also been poor. One day someone in authority will make the vital connection between a decent surface – grass or artificial – and entertaining professional rugby and appreciate the two are inextricably linked. Good groundsmen would suddenly become as sought-after as decent tight-heads.
Nor does it help that the final weekend of pool games threatens to contain about as much left-field suspense, relative to previous seasons, as a newsreader's autocue. Unless Saracens lose at home to Connacht and Leinster fail to collect a point at home to Ospreys, we pretty much know the last eight sides already. Come to think of it, we had a pretty good idea before Christmas.
Way back in October there seemed a possibility that Northampton and Montpellier might edge out Leinster and Ulster but it has not happened. The likes of Toulon, Toulouse, Clermont Auvergne, Munster, Leicester and Saracens have merely done what most expected, with the exception of Connacht's wonderful Pool Three win at Toulouse. The Italian teams' record, meanwhile, reads P10 L10, ensuring the two best second-placed qualifiers will, as per usual, almost certainly emerge from their pools.
On the other hand, the blanket survival of the biggest and fittest –has Europe now morphed into three tiers comprising the elite rich, the middling strivers and the low budget rest? – makes the knockout stages intriguing. As things stand it seems Clermont, Toulouse, Toulon and Leicester – not necessarily in that order – are best placed to secure a home draw, a calculation which assumes an unbeaten Ulster team will not quite manage to turn over the Tigers at Welford Road on Saturday.
That would leave the three Irish provinces, Munster, Leinster and Ulster, looking at an away quarter-final, along with Saracens. It could even be that Sarries, having been battered into submission in Toulouse on Sunday, will have to return to the Midi to face the same opponents, their delayed punishment for finishing second in their pool.
If Ulster – the only unbeaten team left in the competition – do finish second in Pool Five, they might also have to return to the East Midlands in the last eight. In that event there would be a distinct chance of Clermont hosting Munster and Toulon entertaining Leinster. That would certainly tell us whether the Irish sides are the equal of their champion predecessors.
On the evidence to date, it must be said, a final four of Toulouse, Toulon, Clermont and Leicester would not be a massive shock. By April, the likes of Manu Tuilagi should be back fit and the luck of Sunday's semi-final draw at Thomond Park might also boost the Tigers' prospects of reaching the final in Cardiff, in defiance of the gulf in salaries which their director of rugby Richard Cockerill is swift to highlight.
Whatever Europe ends up looking like in future, this random semi-final draw always has a faintly unsatisfactory feel. Surely, in the absence of a two-legged semi, the team with the best record – or the most tries – in that season's pool stages should have precedence? If Clermont, the current Top 14 leaders, are allowed to play their quarter-final and semi-final on French soil, however, they must still be considered favourites to lift the title. Toulon may be the defending champions and Toulouse the tournament's grand masters but the big boys from the Auvergne want to give their departing coach Vern Cotter a grand send-off and have the squad to make it happen.
If Sitiveni Sivivatu, in particular, keeps playing as he has been doing, their knock-out opponents will find them hard to stop. As for the Amlin Challenge Cup qualifiers, Northampton and the winners of Scarlets v Harlequins and Cardiff Blues v Exeter Chiefs may well join the five pool winners. Unless, that is, a largely predictable pool story has a couple of late surprises in store.
*Empty nests*
So far, we are told, some 773,302 spectators have watched the five Heineken Cup pool rounds so far. Perhaps just as relevant is the atmosphere they are watching the games in. You wonder, in particular, if Welsh regional rugby would be more attractive to more punters if so many games were not taking place in soulless half-empty football grounds with little in the way of warmth or character. It does not feel like a total coincidence that Europe's most successful sides – Clermont, Toulon, Leicester, Munster, Leinster etc – play their big matches in atmospheric stadia full of supporters swept away on a tide of passionate enthusiasm.
Staging games in front of rows of empty seats on freezing cold Friday nights or wet Sunday lunchtimes tests the faith of even the most committed.
*Prediction of the week ...*
So much for Saracens winning in Toulouse! Undaunted, our hutch pundit has boldly gone for the food bowl marked "Ulster" when invited to predict the outcome of this weekend's Pool Five decider at Welford Road. With his record beginning to look patchier than a 20-year-old pair of jeans, it is time to call his bluff. Leicester to win and top the pool. Reported by guardian.co.uk 12 hours ago.