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Britain's EU future will be decided by the sceptical centre, not the fanatics | Matthew Goodwin

The vast majority of Britons do not want to pull up the drawbridge. If migrants work and pay taxes, they're welcome

"The whole problem with the world," wrote Bertrand Russell, "is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." This is especially true in politics where debate is dominated by opposing armies of true believers, the committed fanatics who crowd out the moderate, silent and perhaps wiser majority. Take Britain's "debate" over the forthcoming and perfectly legal free movement of workers from Bulgaria and Romania. Fanatics on the right would have us believe tens of millions of criminally minded beggars are about to fill our streets and steal our benefits. Only by breaking the law or ending our relationship with the EU, they claim, can Britain fend off the threatening hordes. Fanatics on the left, meanwhile, are so committed to repudiating such myths and to the ideals of the "Europe project' that they fail to acknowledge public anxieties over migration and institutional failings within the EU.

That those in the centre of British politics think differently to the fanatics is confirmed in a new report from British Future, an independent thinktank concerned with the question of British identity. The report investigates our views toward the EU and the free movement of workers from Bulgaria and Romania – which becomes legal in two weeks' time. In sharp contrast to those in the pro- and anti-EU camps, it reveals how most of us are actually undecided about our country's relationship with Europe and what this entails.

Sure, 24% of British voters want to leave the EU whatever the conditions; and 13% would vote to stay in regardless of the conditions. But between these poles lies an undecided mass – some 63% – who either lean towards staying in but want to know the conditions (22%), lean towards leaving but similarly want to read the small print (26%), or who just don't know what to think (15%).

Many of these voters are instinctively sceptical toward the EU, but they are also open to being persuaded either way. This is why the immediate future in British politics is genuinely exciting: through the European elections in May, a general election in 2015 and a EU referendum campaign, there is everything to play for. So it is the "sceptical centre" who will ultimately determine Britain's relationship with the EU. And British Future has answered a key question: what people think?

Their pragmatism is best reflected in their views of people who joined Britain during the last wave of migration: the Poles. When asked, most voters saw Poles as "hardworking" rather than benefit claimants, and as making a contribution to Britain, rather than not. But at the same time, they want more effort devoted to their local integration. And consider this: almost eight out of every 10 agreed that Britons would welcome Romanians and Bulgarians, so long as they work hard, pay taxes, learn the language and become part of the community.

The sceptical centre also rejects demands from renegade Tories that, if necessary, Britain should breach EU law to curb migration (only 18% endorse this). Instead, most of those in the middle shared a "broader, grudging acceptance that these are the rules of a club of which Britain is a member". Unlike some politicians, they seem to have grasped the fact that, ultimately, this is what we signed up to, although few politicians like to remind us of that.

These voters want information about how migration will make an impact on them and their neighbourhoods; 72% said the government has not given them enough information about what is happening in January; and more than 70% wanted to know more about how this will make an impact on their community. Information is especially important for the pro-EU camp: in one focus group, some of these voters could not even outline the arguments for staying in the EU.

If new migration has to happen, the sceptical centre wants fairness – a large majority wants to enforce minimum wage standards so that EU workers cannot undercut Brits, wants pressure points in public services eased and for government to ensure workers from eastern Europe do not fuel benefit claims (unlikely, given those from the EU made a particularly strong contribution in the decade up to 2011) In short, they are a long way from the "pull the drawbridge up" response that is being voiced by a growing army of rightwing rebels.

It is this sceptical centre that will ultimately determine Britain's relationship with Europe. Its members recognise that an anti-EU and anti-migration response is not in their long-term interests, and does not reflect the kind of Britain to which they want to belong. Reported by guardian.co.uk 10 hours ago.

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