Mrs Merkel's re-election would ensure a stability at the centre of the EU which offers some hope of effective new thinking
It is hard to think of any election in recent times in Europe which has mattered more to more people than the one that takes place in Germany on Sunday. This election, however, is important not just for Germans, who will naturally be the people most directly affected by the outcome. In some respects the result will be just as closely watched across the whole of the eurozone in which Germany is the dominant economy – and in particular by the arc of southern European nations which have been compelled to enact austerity budgets since 2009 to comply with northern notions of fiscal rectitude.
But the result will matter in the European Union as a whole too , not just in the eurozone, since Germany is now the absolutely necessary nation in any programme of reform in the troubled EU. For that reason, the result on Sunday matters very much for Britain too, since Europe is likely to be such a major issue in our own politics over the next five years. This is an election, in other words, which sets the agenda for our part of the world in ways which not even an American election – traditionally far more attentively followed by the British political and media class – can hope to do.
In the past, centre-left observers could look across the North Sea at a German election and generally hope for the social democratic SPD to win. That remains the case this time too, but there is little likelihood that it is going to happen. Current polls suggest a modest SPD recovery from the dire result last time, in 2009, when the party took a mere 23% of the votes. But the SPD's programme of tax increases has not captured the German mood, and the only way in which the SPD's Peer Steinbrück could now emerge as the next German chancellor would be at the head of a coalition with the Greens and the Left party, a coalition which Mr Steinbrück has specifically rejected.
Barring a last-minute upset, therefore, it seems likely that the Christian democratic CDU-CSU alliance under Angela Merkel will be returned to office on Sunday. The one major outstanding question, if the polls are correct, is the colour of the coalition which Mrs Merkel will end up leading for her third term. Her federal coalition ally, the liberal FDP, slumped from 8% of the vote to 3% in the Bavarian state election which took place seven days before the full federal election this Sunday. This raises the possibility that the FDP may also fail to cross the 5% threshold on 22 September – though it may equally act as a wake-up call.
So-called grand coalitions between the main party of the left and the main party of the right are never easy and can be bad for healthy democratic politics. But the case for a grand coalition between the CDU-CSU and the SPD after Sunday's election is a strong one nevertheless. The advantages would start with the stability such a government would provide at the heart of Europe in a time of crisis. They would continue with the replacement of the free-market liberal FDP by the more welfarist SPD as junior coalition partner. That would be good for the 7% of Germans who are currently out of work, in spite of their country's economic success.
But the advantages would go further. The SPD's involvement in the next German government could mean some easing of the austerity terms imposed across the eurozone. That's worth having. But Mrs Merkel's re-election would also ensure a stability and continuity at the centre of the EU which offers some hope – it cannot be put more strongly than that – of effective new thinking within the eurozone and the EU alike. Mrs Merkel's re-election would undoubtedly be the best outcome for the European debate in Britain, since she appears open to some of the practical reforms which David Cameron claims to want. Mrs Merkel remains an inscrutable and overly cautious leader in many ways, but her re-election this weekend at the head of a grand coalition might offer the best outcome for Germany, Europe and Britain in current circumstances. Reported by guardian.co.uk 7 hours ago.
It is hard to think of any election in recent times in Europe which has mattered more to more people than the one that takes place in Germany on Sunday. This election, however, is important not just for Germans, who will naturally be the people most directly affected by the outcome. In some respects the result will be just as closely watched across the whole of the eurozone in which Germany is the dominant economy – and in particular by the arc of southern European nations which have been compelled to enact austerity budgets since 2009 to comply with northern notions of fiscal rectitude.
But the result will matter in the European Union as a whole too , not just in the eurozone, since Germany is now the absolutely necessary nation in any programme of reform in the troubled EU. For that reason, the result on Sunday matters very much for Britain too, since Europe is likely to be such a major issue in our own politics over the next five years. This is an election, in other words, which sets the agenda for our part of the world in ways which not even an American election – traditionally far more attentively followed by the British political and media class – can hope to do.
In the past, centre-left observers could look across the North Sea at a German election and generally hope for the social democratic SPD to win. That remains the case this time too, but there is little likelihood that it is going to happen. Current polls suggest a modest SPD recovery from the dire result last time, in 2009, when the party took a mere 23% of the votes. But the SPD's programme of tax increases has not captured the German mood, and the only way in which the SPD's Peer Steinbrück could now emerge as the next German chancellor would be at the head of a coalition with the Greens and the Left party, a coalition which Mr Steinbrück has specifically rejected.
Barring a last-minute upset, therefore, it seems likely that the Christian democratic CDU-CSU alliance under Angela Merkel will be returned to office on Sunday. The one major outstanding question, if the polls are correct, is the colour of the coalition which Mrs Merkel will end up leading for her third term. Her federal coalition ally, the liberal FDP, slumped from 8% of the vote to 3% in the Bavarian state election which took place seven days before the full federal election this Sunday. This raises the possibility that the FDP may also fail to cross the 5% threshold on 22 September – though it may equally act as a wake-up call.
So-called grand coalitions between the main party of the left and the main party of the right are never easy and can be bad for healthy democratic politics. But the case for a grand coalition between the CDU-CSU and the SPD after Sunday's election is a strong one nevertheless. The advantages would start with the stability such a government would provide at the heart of Europe in a time of crisis. They would continue with the replacement of the free-market liberal FDP by the more welfarist SPD as junior coalition partner. That would be good for the 7% of Germans who are currently out of work, in spite of their country's economic success.
But the advantages would go further. The SPD's involvement in the next German government could mean some easing of the austerity terms imposed across the eurozone. That's worth having. But Mrs Merkel's re-election would also ensure a stability and continuity at the centre of the EU which offers some hope – it cannot be put more strongly than that – of effective new thinking within the eurozone and the EU alike. Mrs Merkel's re-election would undoubtedly be the best outcome for the European debate in Britain, since she appears open to some of the practical reforms which David Cameron claims to want. Mrs Merkel remains an inscrutable and overly cautious leader in many ways, but her re-election this weekend at the head of a grand coalition might offer the best outcome for Germany, Europe and Britain in current circumstances. Reported by guardian.co.uk 7 hours ago.