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Will Angela Merkel escape the austerity backlash?

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One after another, incumbent European leaders have been punished by their electorates. Yet the German chancellor appears to be on course for a third term

Since the financial crisis broke out for real in Europe in 2010, there have been elections in 25 of 28 EU countries. Incumbents were ousted or punished in 19 of these.

In four of the big five EU countries – the UK, France, Spain and Italy – governments of left and right were overturned. Never has it been harder for a European leader to get re-elected.

So: can Angela Merkel do what few of her peers have managed? She certainly has no shortage of enemies. Fortunately for her, however, most of them are southern Europeans, who don't get to vote for a German chancellor.

If she does win – and polls have her comfortably ahead – who will her coalition partners be? And will the outcome affect the policy of austerity, which has rippled outward from Berlin in the past three years, to howls of protest from millions of Europeans squeezed by recession, cuts and lack of prospects?

Germany's first election since the eurozone crisis began is, of course, crucial for the country and the EU. Sunday night's TV debate , in which Merkel won a narrow victory against the SPD challenger, Peer Steinbrück, trended on Twitter (#tvduell) despite being a fairly stolid affair.

So, over the next three weeks on this blog, the Guardian will be following every twist and turn. Our correspondents Kate Connolly, Philip Oltermann and Ian Traynor will report on the mood in Berlin and Brussels, and we will invite a range of German and European journalists and bloggers to share their thoughts on how the election looks from countries where it may matter just as much as it does in Germany itself.

We have teamed up with Le Monde, El País and La Stampa to ask Europeans for their view of the pre-eminent continental power, and will share some of their very forthright views.

But most of all, we would like readers to shape the direction and tone of this blog. What are the issues that will decide this election? And what are the issues that, for whatever reason, are getting no airplay at all? How much longer can Merkel go on for? Will she eclipse Margaret Thatcher as Europe's longest serving female head of government? Will a third Merkel term bring a softening of austerity? Does Steinbrück offer anything radically different? How will the fringe parties fare? Is the protest vote as strong as it was in Italy earlier this year?

For those offering particularly lucid and/or exclusive insights, there may be a chance to contribute a guest blogpost. Reported by guardian.co.uk 12 hours ago.

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