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Ghost of Champions Leagues past may come back to haunt Manchester City

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Poor form in previous seasons means that Manchester City face the prospect of a difficult draw in the Champions League

Manchester City are prepared to be pitched into another daunting Champions League group as an inability to extend their participation in the competition beyond Christmas in each of the past two seasons condemns them to the third pot of seeds in Thursday's draw in Monaco.

City, then under Roberto Mancini, finished third in their group in 2011 having been trumped by Bayern Munich and Napoli and were drawn against the champions of Germany, the Netherlands and Spain last term when pitted against Borussia Dortmund, Ajax and Real Madrid. A bottom-place finish in that section has left their Uefa co-efficient at 70.592, a figure that condemned them to the third pot in the draw after Schalke and Zenit St Petersburg came through qualifying ties to reach the competition proper.

Uefa calculates a club's co-efficient based on their results in Europe over the past five years, effectively rewarding consistency rather than recent but isolated success in one of their competitions, with each club also picking up a fixed percentage – 20% – of their nation's overall coefficient. England sits behind Spain and just above Germany, whose Bundesliga supplied both Champions League finalists back in May, in the pecking order though City's lack of recent success in European competition counts against them.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal all benefit from regular involvement into the latter stages of the competition and have been included in the eight-team pot of top seeds.

Indeed, while Arsène Wenger's side may not have claimed a trophy since 2005, they have now qualified for the group stage for 16 seasons in succession. "At the top level the most difficult thing is to be consistent," said Wenger after his side defeated Fenerbahce 5-0 on aggregate to qualify. "It is an achievement because, if you look at it, only three clubs in Europe have ever done it. I hear it's not enough and I agree but we have been remarkably consistent. Our ambition is much higher than that."

While City were on the brink of making the second group, Schalke's victory over PAOK Salonika on Tuesday and Zenit's dismissal of Paços de Ferreira on Wednesday has left them anxious over which teams await.

The worst-case scenario could see Manuel Pellegrini's side confronting the reigning champions Bayern Munich, now coached by Pep Guardiola, and the money-flushed French title holders Paris Saint-Germain, potentially with Rafael Benítez's Napoli as the lowest-ranked team in the section.

The Italian club may have lost Edinson Cavani to PSG but they have spent heavily to replace the Uruguayan, with Gonzalo Higuaín among Benítez's summer recruits.

Pellegrini has, at least, been here before having excelled while in charge of unfancied Villarreal and, more recently, with Málaga.

The latter club were ranked 24th in Europe when the Chilean steered them into the semi-finals of the competition in 2006 – they lost to Arsenal – while Málaga reached last year's last eight before Dortmund jettisoned them late on at the Westfalen Stadium.

The draw in Monaco will see 32 clubs divided into eight groups of four. No club can be in a group with another club from the same country, or from the same pot of seeds, which means United, Chelsea and Arsenal will all be assured of avoiding each other and the biggest names in Europe until the knockout rounds. Reported by guardian.co.uk 21 hours ago.

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