With recession and the discovery of gas reserves off the Cyprus coast, deadlock with the north is becoming far less convenient
The presidents of the two entities on the divided island of Cyprus sat down with their wives last week for an unusual dinner. Held in the buffer zone that separates the Turkish-run statelet from the Greek Cypriots who control most of the island, it was hosted by the United Nations in a brave attempt to renew negotiations on ending one of the world's longest "frozen conflicts".
The catastrophic financial bailout and the row over the European Union-IMF plan to sequester a chunk of depositors' cash have dominated recent news from Cyprus, or at least from the 60% of the island that is in the eurozone. But the legacy from a Greek Cypriot coup attempt in 1974 and the invasion and occupation by Turkish troops is still the country's biggest problem.
No peace proposals were on the table at last week's dinner, which the Greek Cypriot president, Nicos Anastasiades, insisted should be purely a social event. Elected in February, Anastasiades claims he needs more time to prepare for negotiations, but he reluctantly agreed to meet Dervis Eroglu, the head of the self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, in a getting-to-know-you session – spouses also welcome – provided no politics disturbed the occasion.
Why he is so hesitant is obscure. The argument that his community's economic crisis is so complex that time does not permit him to concentrate on peace talks does not hold much water. The issues have been thrashed out at inordinate length over the years by a series of UN mediators, the latest of these being Alexander Downer, a former foreign minister of Australia.
The best chance of success came in 2004 when the then UN secretary general Kofi Annan produced a plan for a federation of the two parts of the island that was put to a referendum. Nearly two-thirds of Turks supported it but, to the surprise of almost everyone on the island as well as of diplomats, less than a quarter of the Greeks did.
One irony of the buffer zone soiree was that Eroglu was in the minority of Turks in 2004 who campaigned for a "no" vote but now seems eager for a settlement, while Anastasiades was brave enough to campaign for a "yes" vote. Today, however, Anastasiades refuses to say whether he supports the Annan plan, even as a basis for further negotiations. Indeed his party recently backed new pin-pricks against the Turkish side when parliament passed a bill that would deny free medical treatment to Turkish Cypriots who come over to the south for complex operations that are not available in the less developed north.
The sums of money saved are piffling, and the move ran against the spirit of the opening of inter-communal borders that began in 2003 and has alleviated some of the pain of division for the last decade.
Anastasiades has sent his foreign minister to London and other western capitals in recent weeks to explain the case for delay in starting new peace talks, while the Turkish Cypriots have sent their chief negotiator around a similar circuit arguing the opposite.
The US, which plays the major role, seem to favour urgency. "I would hope that rather than preventing people from moving forward, the economic crisis in fact opens up opportunities," said the US secretary of state, John Kerry, as he stood beside the Greek Cypriot foreign minister.
Like other outside players, Washington believes a potential new key to peace lies in the discovery of huge gas reserves off Cyprus's coast. Without agreement on the island's future and the sharing of revenues between the two communities, investors will be reluctant to commit funds to develop them. Nor will there be money to lay the pipeline needed to export the gas. The Turkish Cypriots say a pipeline to Turkey and thence to Europe is the cheapest and most logical solution. The Greek Cypriots are toying with a pipeline to Israel.
Whether the gas finds turn out to be a political blessing or a curse is hard to predict. Cypriot leaders on both sides have exasperated international mediators for decades, and the prospect of hydrocarbon riches may produce more stupidity than sense once again.
Anastasiades's behaviour is hardly encouraging. Take his reaction to the 77-page document that the UN recently sent him, outlining all the "convergences" between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot positions that mediators had identified during the four years of talks under Anastasiades's predecessor, Demetris Christofias. Instead of treating it as useful, Anastasiades accused Downer of trying to undermine his credibility and threatened to pull out of the dinner.
Anastasiades is in a coalition government and under pressure from other political parties – but this only tends to strengthen the view, held by many observers, that the Greek Cypriot elite has become comfortable with the deadlock. The south was living far better than the north, while having a divided and occupied island gave Greek Cypriots international standing as victims.
If that is the mood, it is time to think again. Standing clear of the eurozone, the northern Cyprus economy is growing while the south is doomed to a decade of recession. At least as much as the discovery of gas, the harsh twist in the south's euro fortunes ought to spur its leaders to go for peace. Reported by guardian.co.uk 1 hour ago.
The presidents of the two entities on the divided island of Cyprus sat down with their wives last week for an unusual dinner. Held in the buffer zone that separates the Turkish-run statelet from the Greek Cypriots who control most of the island, it was hosted by the United Nations in a brave attempt to renew negotiations on ending one of the world's longest "frozen conflicts".
The catastrophic financial bailout and the row over the European Union-IMF plan to sequester a chunk of depositors' cash have dominated recent news from Cyprus, or at least from the 60% of the island that is in the eurozone. But the legacy from a Greek Cypriot coup attempt in 1974 and the invasion and occupation by Turkish troops is still the country's biggest problem.
No peace proposals were on the table at last week's dinner, which the Greek Cypriot president, Nicos Anastasiades, insisted should be purely a social event. Elected in February, Anastasiades claims he needs more time to prepare for negotiations, but he reluctantly agreed to meet Dervis Eroglu, the head of the self-styled Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, in a getting-to-know-you session – spouses also welcome – provided no politics disturbed the occasion.
Why he is so hesitant is obscure. The argument that his community's economic crisis is so complex that time does not permit him to concentrate on peace talks does not hold much water. The issues have been thrashed out at inordinate length over the years by a series of UN mediators, the latest of these being Alexander Downer, a former foreign minister of Australia.
The best chance of success came in 2004 when the then UN secretary general Kofi Annan produced a plan for a federation of the two parts of the island that was put to a referendum. Nearly two-thirds of Turks supported it but, to the surprise of almost everyone on the island as well as of diplomats, less than a quarter of the Greeks did.
One irony of the buffer zone soiree was that Eroglu was in the minority of Turks in 2004 who campaigned for a "no" vote but now seems eager for a settlement, while Anastasiades was brave enough to campaign for a "yes" vote. Today, however, Anastasiades refuses to say whether he supports the Annan plan, even as a basis for further negotiations. Indeed his party recently backed new pin-pricks against the Turkish side when parliament passed a bill that would deny free medical treatment to Turkish Cypriots who come over to the south for complex operations that are not available in the less developed north.
The sums of money saved are piffling, and the move ran against the spirit of the opening of inter-communal borders that began in 2003 and has alleviated some of the pain of division for the last decade.
Anastasiades has sent his foreign minister to London and other western capitals in recent weeks to explain the case for delay in starting new peace talks, while the Turkish Cypriots have sent their chief negotiator around a similar circuit arguing the opposite.
The US, which plays the major role, seem to favour urgency. "I would hope that rather than preventing people from moving forward, the economic crisis in fact opens up opportunities," said the US secretary of state, John Kerry, as he stood beside the Greek Cypriot foreign minister.
Like other outside players, Washington believes a potential new key to peace lies in the discovery of huge gas reserves off Cyprus's coast. Without agreement on the island's future and the sharing of revenues between the two communities, investors will be reluctant to commit funds to develop them. Nor will there be money to lay the pipeline needed to export the gas. The Turkish Cypriots say a pipeline to Turkey and thence to Europe is the cheapest and most logical solution. The Greek Cypriots are toying with a pipeline to Israel.
Whether the gas finds turn out to be a political blessing or a curse is hard to predict. Cypriot leaders on both sides have exasperated international mediators for decades, and the prospect of hydrocarbon riches may produce more stupidity than sense once again.
Anastasiades's behaviour is hardly encouraging. Take his reaction to the 77-page document that the UN recently sent him, outlining all the "convergences" between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot positions that mediators had identified during the four years of talks under Anastasiades's predecessor, Demetris Christofias. Instead of treating it as useful, Anastasiades accused Downer of trying to undermine his credibility and threatened to pull out of the dinner.
Anastasiades is in a coalition government and under pressure from other political parties – but this only tends to strengthen the view, held by many observers, that the Greek Cypriot elite has become comfortable with the deadlock. The south was living far better than the north, while having a divided and occupied island gave Greek Cypriots international standing as victims.
If that is the mood, it is time to think again. Standing clear of the eurozone, the northern Cyprus economy is growing while the south is doomed to a decade of recession. At least as much as the discovery of gas, the harsh twist in the south's euro fortunes ought to spur its leaders to go for peace. Reported by guardian.co.uk 1 hour ago.