There is no disputing that Lord Lawson's EU-turn reflects his party's own historic change of view over Europe
Trouble, thy name is Nigel. Or so it must seem to David Cameron. In a week, the prime minister's authority has been rocked by Nigel Farage, shaken by the Nigel Evans allegations and now openly challenged by the most important Nigel in recent Conservative history. It is 24 years since Nigel Lawson's resignation signalled the endgame of Margaret Thatcher's premiership. And it needs to be stressed that, for most people under the age of 40, the former chancellor is much less of a name these days than his daughter. Nevertheless, Lord Lawson proved this week that, at 81, he is still one of the most articulate figures in politics and has lost none of his sense of theatre. By saying, on the eve of the Queen's Speech, that he thinks Britain should now quit the European Union, he has poured petrol on the flames already licking through the Conservative mansion after last week's local election defeats.
There can be no disputing that Lord Lawson's change of heart on the EU – he voted yes to British membership, along with Lady Thatcher herself, back in 1975 – reflects his party's own historic change of view over Europe, between the Ted Heath era and that of David Cameron. It is representative, too, of the more sceptical mood of the public, judging by the opinion polls. But it goes completely against Mr Cameron's optimism that he can negotiate a new relationship with the EU and win a referendum to endorse that view – and Lord Lawson knows this very well. The former chancellor has therefore chosen his time with malice aforethought, in order to make life much harder for the prime minister.
Lord Lawson's move is also a reminder that, for all his occasional brilliance, he sometimes calls big things wrong. It was he who encouraged sterling to shadow the Deutschmark so that the UK could join the European fixed exchange rate system – only for the ejection of the UK from that system in 1992 to seal the Tory party's fate for a generation. It is he who, in increasingly dismissive terms, has become this country's leading climate change denier – a stance that has given a more general permission to the Tory party to back off from the scientific approach to which Lady Thatcher, no less, first led it. And it is he who, only 18 months ago, wrote that the eurozone needed time and the EU needed reform to get themselves through their crises – yet it is he who has now abandoned the patient approach and who is prejudging the whole outcome.
Lord Lawson is not just wrong about the underlying issue of Britain and Europe. He is also wrong even from his own party's point of view. His move is doomed to make life more difficult for both Mr Cameron and for the Tory party – and thus to make it much harder for the Tories to win the 2015 election and be able to hold the referendum which the prime minister promised in his speech in January and on which so much is now staked.
The Tory party has been spooked by Ukip's successes in the local elections. Many Tories wish their party embraced Ukip's signature policy of EU withdrawal. They draw the false conclusion that a more strongly Eurosceptic stance will reduce the Ukip threat, which, they reason, would allow the Tories to recapture their popularity and a majority in 2015. In fact, Lord Lawson's move means the reverse is more likely to be true – as the polls also suggested after Mr Cameron's January speech. The more that the Tories show themselves obsessed with Europe, which is not the main issue facing this country, the more they appear out of touch with public concerns and the more their divisions give voters permission to look elsewhere, including, ironically, to Ukip.
All this forms an unimpressive political backdrop to the new parliamentary session. In the last full session before the 2015 general election overshadows everything, the government ought to be focused on the public's priorities, not on those of the Tory party. Instead, the Tory part of the coalition seems to have got everything the wrong way around. It is therefore a moment of opportunity not for the Tories, but for their political opponents. Reported by guardian.co.uk 15 hours ago.
Trouble, thy name is Nigel. Or so it must seem to David Cameron. In a week, the prime minister's authority has been rocked by Nigel Farage, shaken by the Nigel Evans allegations and now openly challenged by the most important Nigel in recent Conservative history. It is 24 years since Nigel Lawson's resignation signalled the endgame of Margaret Thatcher's premiership. And it needs to be stressed that, for most people under the age of 40, the former chancellor is much less of a name these days than his daughter. Nevertheless, Lord Lawson proved this week that, at 81, he is still one of the most articulate figures in politics and has lost none of his sense of theatre. By saying, on the eve of the Queen's Speech, that he thinks Britain should now quit the European Union, he has poured petrol on the flames already licking through the Conservative mansion after last week's local election defeats.
There can be no disputing that Lord Lawson's change of heart on the EU – he voted yes to British membership, along with Lady Thatcher herself, back in 1975 – reflects his party's own historic change of view over Europe, between the Ted Heath era and that of David Cameron. It is representative, too, of the more sceptical mood of the public, judging by the opinion polls. But it goes completely against Mr Cameron's optimism that he can negotiate a new relationship with the EU and win a referendum to endorse that view – and Lord Lawson knows this very well. The former chancellor has therefore chosen his time with malice aforethought, in order to make life much harder for the prime minister.
Lord Lawson's move is also a reminder that, for all his occasional brilliance, he sometimes calls big things wrong. It was he who encouraged sterling to shadow the Deutschmark so that the UK could join the European fixed exchange rate system – only for the ejection of the UK from that system in 1992 to seal the Tory party's fate for a generation. It is he who, in increasingly dismissive terms, has become this country's leading climate change denier – a stance that has given a more general permission to the Tory party to back off from the scientific approach to which Lady Thatcher, no less, first led it. And it is he who, only 18 months ago, wrote that the eurozone needed time and the EU needed reform to get themselves through their crises – yet it is he who has now abandoned the patient approach and who is prejudging the whole outcome.
Lord Lawson is not just wrong about the underlying issue of Britain and Europe. He is also wrong even from his own party's point of view. His move is doomed to make life more difficult for both Mr Cameron and for the Tory party – and thus to make it much harder for the Tories to win the 2015 election and be able to hold the referendum which the prime minister promised in his speech in January and on which so much is now staked.
The Tory party has been spooked by Ukip's successes in the local elections. Many Tories wish their party embraced Ukip's signature policy of EU withdrawal. They draw the false conclusion that a more strongly Eurosceptic stance will reduce the Ukip threat, which, they reason, would allow the Tories to recapture their popularity and a majority in 2015. In fact, Lord Lawson's move means the reverse is more likely to be true – as the polls also suggested after Mr Cameron's January speech. The more that the Tories show themselves obsessed with Europe, which is not the main issue facing this country, the more they appear out of touch with public concerns and the more their divisions give voters permission to look elsewhere, including, ironically, to Ukip.
All this forms an unimpressive political backdrop to the new parliamentary session. In the last full session before the 2015 general election overshadows everything, the government ought to be focused on the public's priorities, not on those of the Tory party. Instead, the Tory part of the coalition seems to have got everything the wrong way around. It is therefore a moment of opportunity not for the Tories, but for their political opponents. Reported by guardian.co.uk 15 hours ago.