Think Ukip voters are obsessed with Europe? Think they only hurt the Tories? Time to lay some misconceptions to rest
Following its dramatic surge in the local elections, Ukip is the centre of media and political class attention. Several myths and misconceptions feature prominently amid the instant reaction and punditry. Here's my take on five common weekend reactions to Nigel Farage's big success last Thursday.
*1. Ukip voters are traditional Tories*
This view has been expressed most colourfully by Boris Johnson, who has arguing that his party should avoid a Nicolas Cage-style freakout over voters supporting a "doppelganger" party. It's a view seemingly shared by many on the right of the Conservative party. Lord Tebbit argues that Ukip voters can hardly be blamed for supporting "the party which comes closest to a traditional Conservative agenda".
It is certainly true that Ukip take more support from people who backed the Conservatives in 2010 than any other source, but this statistic is deceptive in two ways. First, this Tory lean is not stable: Ukip were recruiting heavily from Labour as recently as 2009. As a populist party, it picks up support most strongly from whoever is in charge.
Second, the social profile of Ukip supporters is very different to the Conservatives'. Tory voters tend to be middle class, more economically secure, wealthier than average homeowners. Ukip draws support most strongly from blue-collar workers, council house tenants, and voters on low and insecure incomes. While working-class conservatism has a long heritage, it is important not to confuse Ukip voters with the kind of "natural Tories" found in Surrey suburban golf clubs.
*2. Ukip voters mainly care about Europe*
This is a very popular myth with the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party, which sees the Ukip insurgency through the lens of its own Brussels preoccupations. Since last week's Ukip surge, in an election that clearly had nothing to do with Europe, a platoon of Conservative backbenchers have taken to the media to call for more focus on an issue which obsesses them, but bores the average voter rigid.
Adam Afriyie called for an immediate in-out referendum on EU membership; the Thatcherite No Turning Back group upped the ante further, demanding two referendums in the next two years. Conservative MPs arguing that Ukip's vote is all about a sudden surge of critical voter interest in the doings of Brussels ignore that their current leader has already taken a more stridently Eurosceptic line in word and deed than any prime minister in history, including withdrawing from the main centre-right party group in the European parliament; vetoing the EU treaty designed to deal with the eurozone crisis and promising an EU referendum in the next parliament.
None of these have made a dent in Ukip's support and those imagining one more "big push" on Europe will return the Kippers to the fold are deluding themselves. The polling evidence on this is very clear: the EU is not the primary concern of Ukip voters. In fact, it comes a distant third behind immigration and the economy.
*3. If the Conservatives shift to the right, Ukip voters will come back into the fold*
A second Conservative response we have seen this weekend is a little more thoughtful than the "bash Europe" reaction. Many have recognised that Ukip resonates with socially conservative voters on a broad range of issues, including immigration (easily Ukip voters' top concern), traditional values, national identity, and law and order. So they call for an abandonment of the Cameron project and more red meat on crime, migration and assertive national identity.
This response is a little closer to the mark, but is still mistaken in two important respects. First, it underestimates the degree of distrust, even outright hostility, among voters now turning to Ukip. These are voters who regard the political elite with contempt; many will reject any push for social conservatism from Tory high command now as an insincere and cynical ploy by politicians who have for years made a big play of rejecting it.
Second, a big push to appeal to the concerns of these voters on issues such as immigration, multiculturalism, gay marriage, women in the workforce risks abandoning the voters of the future to win back the voters of the past. The direction of long-term social change in Britain is very clear: we are moving inexorably towards a more diverse, highly educated, socially liberal society, with more inclusive and flexible gender roles and social institutions. Ukip voters find this change deeply threatening, but if the Conservatives seek to respond to these fears, they risk trading short-term recovery for long-term disaster.
*4. Only the Conservatives need to worry about Ukip*
A Guardian editorial ahead of last week's locals opined that "in most respects, the rise of Ukip matters only within the centre right", and form part of a "rightwing psychodrama" which the centre and the left can ignore. If Kippers are a motley crew of Tory Europhobes, why should the left pay them any mind? As we have seen, however, Ukip supporters are nothing of the sort. They are older, less well qualified blue-collar workers. Struggling with stagnant wages and facing cuts to services and benefits, these are the traditional working-class Labour voters who stopped listening to the party during the 2000s, put off by immigration, expenses and a perception that they had elected three Labour governments, yet had little to show for it. It certainly should concern Ed Miliband that the voters who stopped listening to his party when his predecessors were in charge now prefer the message of a privately educated former stockbroker in a pinstripe soon to his own.
*5. Ukip are a midterm flash in the pan*
Lord Heseltine has expressed this view: "There's always a midterm protest," he said. "It used to be the Lib Dems. They're now tied up with government, so they can't be a protest group. So Ukip has arrived." There is doubtless some truth to it: voters do like to kick out at all incumbent governments, and with the Lib Dems in the coalition they lack the traditional outlet for this impulse. Nonetheless, this should not be taken as an argument for complacency. The Lib Dems, after all, have learned how to turn midterm protest into lasting support – many of their MPs, elected in byelection upsets as voters swung heavily against the government, have consolidated their support in subsequent general election.
Ukip's recent byelection shares suggest it is getting closer to delivering similar Westminster upsets. And last Thursday's wave of seat gains suggests that, like the Lib Dems, the party is now building an effective activist organisation that knows how to deliver votes and win traditional British elections. On top of this, it is certain to receive a large boost in next year's European parliament election, most likely beating the Conservatives into second and perhaps even taking the top spot from Labour.
Ukip will therefore go into the next general election with a large, energised activist base, a significant power base in many local councils and a series of target seats where it is already regarded by many voters as the main opposition. The barrier thrown up by a first-past-the-post general election to a party like Ukip, without a regional powerbase, remain formidable. Yet the evidence suggests it is steadily building the tools needed to scale it. Reported by guardian.co.uk 1 hour ago.
Following its dramatic surge in the local elections, Ukip is the centre of media and political class attention. Several myths and misconceptions feature prominently amid the instant reaction and punditry. Here's my take on five common weekend reactions to Nigel Farage's big success last Thursday.
*1. Ukip voters are traditional Tories*
This view has been expressed most colourfully by Boris Johnson, who has arguing that his party should avoid a Nicolas Cage-style freakout over voters supporting a "doppelganger" party. It's a view seemingly shared by many on the right of the Conservative party. Lord Tebbit argues that Ukip voters can hardly be blamed for supporting "the party which comes closest to a traditional Conservative agenda".
It is certainly true that Ukip take more support from people who backed the Conservatives in 2010 than any other source, but this statistic is deceptive in two ways. First, this Tory lean is not stable: Ukip were recruiting heavily from Labour as recently as 2009. As a populist party, it picks up support most strongly from whoever is in charge.
Second, the social profile of Ukip supporters is very different to the Conservatives'. Tory voters tend to be middle class, more economically secure, wealthier than average homeowners. Ukip draws support most strongly from blue-collar workers, council house tenants, and voters on low and insecure incomes. While working-class conservatism has a long heritage, it is important not to confuse Ukip voters with the kind of "natural Tories" found in Surrey suburban golf clubs.
*2. Ukip voters mainly care about Europe*
This is a very popular myth with the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party, which sees the Ukip insurgency through the lens of its own Brussels preoccupations. Since last week's Ukip surge, in an election that clearly had nothing to do with Europe, a platoon of Conservative backbenchers have taken to the media to call for more focus on an issue which obsesses them, but bores the average voter rigid.
Adam Afriyie called for an immediate in-out referendum on EU membership; the Thatcherite No Turning Back group upped the ante further, demanding two referendums in the next two years. Conservative MPs arguing that Ukip's vote is all about a sudden surge of critical voter interest in the doings of Brussels ignore that their current leader has already taken a more stridently Eurosceptic line in word and deed than any prime minister in history, including withdrawing from the main centre-right party group in the European parliament; vetoing the EU treaty designed to deal with the eurozone crisis and promising an EU referendum in the next parliament.
None of these have made a dent in Ukip's support and those imagining one more "big push" on Europe will return the Kippers to the fold are deluding themselves. The polling evidence on this is very clear: the EU is not the primary concern of Ukip voters. In fact, it comes a distant third behind immigration and the economy.
*3. If the Conservatives shift to the right, Ukip voters will come back into the fold*
A second Conservative response we have seen this weekend is a little more thoughtful than the "bash Europe" reaction. Many have recognised that Ukip resonates with socially conservative voters on a broad range of issues, including immigration (easily Ukip voters' top concern), traditional values, national identity, and law and order. So they call for an abandonment of the Cameron project and more red meat on crime, migration and assertive national identity.
This response is a little closer to the mark, but is still mistaken in two important respects. First, it underestimates the degree of distrust, even outright hostility, among voters now turning to Ukip. These are voters who regard the political elite with contempt; many will reject any push for social conservatism from Tory high command now as an insincere and cynical ploy by politicians who have for years made a big play of rejecting it.
Second, a big push to appeal to the concerns of these voters on issues such as immigration, multiculturalism, gay marriage, women in the workforce risks abandoning the voters of the future to win back the voters of the past. The direction of long-term social change in Britain is very clear: we are moving inexorably towards a more diverse, highly educated, socially liberal society, with more inclusive and flexible gender roles and social institutions. Ukip voters find this change deeply threatening, but if the Conservatives seek to respond to these fears, they risk trading short-term recovery for long-term disaster.
*4. Only the Conservatives need to worry about Ukip*
A Guardian editorial ahead of last week's locals opined that "in most respects, the rise of Ukip matters only within the centre right", and form part of a "rightwing psychodrama" which the centre and the left can ignore. If Kippers are a motley crew of Tory Europhobes, why should the left pay them any mind? As we have seen, however, Ukip supporters are nothing of the sort. They are older, less well qualified blue-collar workers. Struggling with stagnant wages and facing cuts to services and benefits, these are the traditional working-class Labour voters who stopped listening to the party during the 2000s, put off by immigration, expenses and a perception that they had elected three Labour governments, yet had little to show for it. It certainly should concern Ed Miliband that the voters who stopped listening to his party when his predecessors were in charge now prefer the message of a privately educated former stockbroker in a pinstripe soon to his own.
*5. Ukip are a midterm flash in the pan*
Lord Heseltine has expressed this view: "There's always a midterm protest," he said. "It used to be the Lib Dems. They're now tied up with government, so they can't be a protest group. So Ukip has arrived." There is doubtless some truth to it: voters do like to kick out at all incumbent governments, and with the Lib Dems in the coalition they lack the traditional outlet for this impulse. Nonetheless, this should not be taken as an argument for complacency. The Lib Dems, after all, have learned how to turn midterm protest into lasting support – many of their MPs, elected in byelection upsets as voters swung heavily against the government, have consolidated their support in subsequent general election.
Ukip's recent byelection shares suggest it is getting closer to delivering similar Westminster upsets. And last Thursday's wave of seat gains suggests that, like the Lib Dems, the party is now building an effective activist organisation that knows how to deliver votes and win traditional British elections. On top of this, it is certain to receive a large boost in next year's European parliament election, most likely beating the Conservatives into second and perhaps even taking the top spot from Labour.
Ukip will therefore go into the next general election with a large, energised activist base, a significant power base in many local councils and a series of target seats where it is already regarded by many voters as the main opposition. The barrier thrown up by a first-past-the-post general election to a party like Ukip, without a regional powerbase, remain formidable. Yet the evidence suggests it is steadily building the tools needed to scale it. Reported by guardian.co.uk 1 hour ago.